La economía española registrará un crecimiento del 29% en 2025 y del 21% en 2026.
- En esta evolución, el Coface RiskReview sitúa a España muy por encima de la Unión Europea (+1,3 % en 2025 y +1,5 % en 2026) y la zona euro (+1 % y +1,3 %), así como de Alemania (+0,3 % y +1 %), Francia (+0,5 % y +0,6 %), Italia (+0,5 % y +0,7 %) y Reino Unido (+1,0 % en ambos ejercicios).
- Coface prevé un crecimiento global del 2,6 % en 2025 y del 2,4 % en 2026, revisado al alza gracias a la solidez de EE. UU. y la recuperación de países como India, aunque persisten los riesgos de desaceleración en China y Europa.
- El índice global de insolvencias comerciales para las economías avanzadas ha subido un 4 % en comparación con 2024, con incrementos marcados en Europa (11 %) y en la región Asia-Pacífico (12 %).
- El índice de riesgo político y social de Coface ha alcanzado el nivel histórico de 41,1 %, superando el pico registrado durante la pandemia.
España sigue destacando como una de las economías más dinámicas a nivel europeo e, incluso, mundial. Así lo refleja el Coface RiskReview de octubre de 2025, presentado hoy por la compañía especializada en la gestión integral del riesgo comercial, que prevé un crecimiento del PIB nacional del 2,9 % a cierre de 2025 (en junio, la previsión de crecimiento era del 2,6 %, lo que supone una mejora de 3 décimas) y del 2,1 % para 2026, cifras que consolidan el liderazgo español frente a sus países vecinos.
En comparación, la Unión Europea crecerá un 1,3 % en 2025 y un 1,5 % en 2026, mientras que la zona euro lo hará un 1 % y un 1,3 %, respectivamente. Entre las grandes economías de la región, Alemania apenas avanzará un 0,3 % este año y un 1 % el próximo, Francia un 0,5 % y 0,6 %, Italia un 0,5 % y 0,7 %, y Reino Unido un 1,0 % en ambos ejercicios.
Incluso en un contexto de desaceleración global, España mantiene un ritmo diferencial, apoyado en una demanda interna sólida que se sustenta en la inmigración, la mejora del poder adquisitivo de los hogares y el impulso de los fondos europeos. De hecho, su previsión de crecimiento para los dos próximos años supera ampliamente el promedio de las economías avanzadas (1,4 % en 2025 y 1,4 % en 2026) e incluso se sitúa por encima de países como Estados Unidos (1,8 % y 1,7 %), Canadá (1,1 % y 1,0 %) o Japón (0,8 % y 0,6 %).
La economía mundial absorbe el impacto de los nuevos aranceles
El CofaceRisk Review de octubre analiza las dinámicas globales, centrándose en el aumento del riesgo social y político y en los retos estratégicos de los países del Golfo. El estudio destaca que la economía mundial ha resistido los trastornos comerciales del primer semestre de 2025, pero en los próximos trimestres se verán los efectos a más largo plazo. En este contexto, Coface ha realizado 5 modificaciones en sus evaluaciones de riesgo país (incluidas 4 mejoras) y 16 cambios en las evaluaciones sectoriales (incluidas 9 mejoras).
Empezando por el análisis de EE. UU., el informe muestra que el tipo medio de arancel se sitúa actualmente en torno al 18 % (tras haber alcanzado un máximo del 36 % justo después del Día de la Liberación), muy por encima del 2,5 % observado durante la administración Biden. Las empresas han logrado anticiparse, reorientarse y absorber los impactos, y la economía estadounidense también se ha visto respaldada por fuertes inversiones en inteligencia artificial. Sin embargo, ya empiezan a aparecer los primeros signos negativos en la actividad, el empleo y la inflación en EE. UU., lo que anuncia una transferencia gradual de los efectos perjudiciales de las medidas aduaneras hacia la macroeconomía.
A nivel mundial, Coface prevé un crecimiento global de +2,6 % en 2025, revisado al alza (en la edición de junio, la previsión era del 2,2 %), seguido de +2,4 % en 2026. Por ahora, EE.UU resiste mejor de lo esperado gracias a la demanda interna, mientras que se espera que China continúe desacelerándose y que el crecimiento de la zona euro se mantenga débil, a pesar del (leve) repunte previsto en Alemania. Las presiones inflacionarias siguen siendo bajas en un contexto de desaceleración global y caída de los precios de las materias primas (energía y alimentos), aunque persiste la incertidumbre sobre el perfil de la inflación estadounidense, que se espera que ronde el 4 % a finales de 2025 o principios de 2026. En cuanto a los bancos centrales, la Reserva Federal reanudó su ciclo de recortes de tipos en septiembre, mientras que el BCE probablemente ha concluido el suyo – salvo un fuerte deterioro de la actividad – tras fijar el tipo de depósito en 2 %.
A nivel regional, India ha registrado un crecimiento anual notable (+7,6 % en el primer semestre del año), Polonia mantiene un impulso sólido (+3,4 % en el segundo trimestre), mientras que las perspectivas para África mejoran (+4,1 % en 2025). No obstante, la situación económica sigue siendo incierta debido a los riesgos de escalada geopolítica y a los efectos del endurecimiento fiscal en los países donde se ha aplicado.
Aumento de las insolvencias: Europa y Asia en primera línea
Las insolvencias comerciales han seguido aumentando en 2025. El índice global para las economías avanzadas ha subido un 4 % en comparación con 2024, con incrementos marcados en Europa (+11 %) y en la región Asia-Pacífico (+12 %), mientras que América del Norte registró un descenso. Aunque la bajada de los tipos de interés y un acceso más fácil al crédito deberían ofrecer cierto alivio en 2026, la tendencia actual pone de manifiesto la fragilidad de las empresas ante los elevados costes y la demanda incierta.
Riesgo político y social: la inestabilidad se ha convertido en la norma
El índice de riesgo político y social de Coface ha alcanzado un nivel histórico del 41,1 %, superando el pico registrado durante la pandemia y consolidando el riesgo político como un parámetro estructural clave de la economía global.
Persistencia de conflictos importantes y aumento de tensiones internas
Los conflictos de gran escala persisten, mientras que las tensiones internas se intensifican, especialmente en África (Burkina Faso, Níger, etc.), Pakistán y Líbano. Estados Unidos ha registrado el mayor aumento en el riesgo, relacionado con una creciente fragilidad institucional y el auge del populismo. En Europa, Francia enfrenta una crisis política grave y sin precedentes. Este contexto obliga a las empresas a ser cada vez más vigilantes y a adaptar continuamente sus estrategias.
Petróleo: el Golfo reinventa su poder
El Consejo de Cooperación del Golfo (CCG) sigue siendo una de las regiones más dinámicas, impulsada por una acelerada diversificación económica: el sector no petrolero represente cerca del 70 % del PIB a finales de 2024. Se prevé que el crecimiento del CCG alcance el 3,8 % en 2025 y el 4 % en 2026, apoyado por la demanda interna y las iniciativas públicas (como la Visión 2030 en Arabia Saudita).
Emiratos Árabes Unidos y Arabia Saudita han atraído flujos récord de inversión extranjera directa (IED) (46 y 32 mil millones de dólares respectivamente en 2024), reforzando su integración en las cadenas de valor globales. Sin embargo, la dependencia persistente de los hidrocarburos y una caída prolongada de los precios del petróleo podrían debilitar los presupuestos y retrasar la ejecución de varios proyectos estratégicos.
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